Estimating Sea-Level Extremes in an Uncertain Future

We are living in a world in which sea level is rising and will continue to rise for centuries. However, methods for managing the coastal zone have traditionally assumed that sea level is a constant. New techniques are therefore required for designing, planning and policymaking in this changing environment.

The Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), in partnership with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, has developed a decision-support tool to assist coastal managers to assess the level of future risk under conditions of a rising sea level and to plan accordingly.

Rising sea level will lead to a significant increase in flooding events from the ocean. However, estimates of such changes are inherently uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from the fact that we do not know when the next major storm will occur or the height of the resultant surge. Projections of future sea-level rise also involve significant uncertainty, because of imperfect understanding of the science and of the world's future emissions. An important aspect of this decision-support tool is that it provides a consistent treatment of these uncertainties and therefore provides a major element of the likelihood on which estimates of future climate-related risk may be based.

During 2009 and early 2010, the ACE CRC delivered seminars and training workshops around Australia to an audience of around 1000 people. This program was specifically designed for designers, planners and policymakers to assist in understanding how to:

•        assess the risk to existing assets and plan appropriate adaptation, and

•        set appropriate design codes and planning strategies for future developments.
This round of seminars and workshops is now completed.

To obtain a copy of a demonstration version of the web tool and to discuss future training options, please contact info@sealevelrise.info

Co-funded by the Department of Climate Change and the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre.