Estimating Sea-Level Extremes in an Uncertain Future

We are living in a world in which sea level is rising and will continue to rise for centuries. However, methods for managing the coastal zone have traditionally assumed that sea level remains constant. New techniques are therefore required for designing, planning and policymaking in this changing environment.

One impact of rising sea level will be a significant increase in flooding events from the ocean. However, estimates of such changes are inherently uncertain. Part of this uncertainty stems from the fact we do not know when the next major storm will occur or the height of the resultant surge. Projections of future sea-level rise also involve significant uncertainty, because of imperfect understanding of the science and of the world’s future emissions.

The Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), in partnership with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, has developed a decision-support tool to assist coastal managers to assess the level of future risk under conditions of a rising sea level and to plan accordingly.  An important aspect of this tool is that it provides a consistent treatment of the uncertainties and therefore provides a major element of the likelihood on which estimates of future climate-related risk may be used.

This tool can therefore be used to assist in establishing an appropriate design height for new coastal assets and to assess the future risk of flooding of existing assets.

To access the decision-support tool you will need to complete the online training available here.

For more information please contact [email protected]

Acknowledgement:

This project is supported by:

The Climate Change Adaptation Program - An Australian Government initiative